The Facts About COVID-19
As one would expect a pandemic to be, COVID-19 has become
a very big deal. Its effects have been felt by billions of people worldwide. It
has manifested itself in trillions of lost dollars, thousands of lost lives,
millions of lost man-hours, and much more. However, as it unfortunately came
into being at the climax of the American political scene, with the 2020
presidential election, it has been contorted into this massive monster.
Partisanship has distorted poor little COVID so immensely, and Americans – even
if they try to look at what other countries, with much less polarization, say/do –
might find everything so disorienting. Three major questions exist regarding
the virus that piled up and interwoven misinformation has obscured for the
common person. These questions are, “What is its nature,” “What has the response
to it been,” and, “Where did it originate?” Its nature, response, and
origin.
Now, I must say, even as an ardent and unashamed
libertarian who has his fair share of views on COVID-19, I must highlight this preeminent fact about the virus’
nature: it is real, it is dangerous, it is serious.
However, no more than any virus – precedented or unprecedented – is, and any
other view of it is just fearmongering. COVID-19 is a strain of coronaviruses
(taxonomically called Coronaviridae), a viral family of dozens of RNA
viruses that are primarily responsible for well-known illnesses such as severe
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).(1)(2) So, while COVID-19 itself is novel, it is not unprecedented and a handful of
precedented and well-known “cousins” exist that have helped expedite COVID-19
research due to their similarity.(3) That is important to note
because, just as we don’t get frightened every time an influenza season
garnishes a new strain, the same logic should apply to Coronaviridae and
its strains because, just like the flu, it is going to be near-identical to its
antecedents and ease research. This can be proven when you take note that, as
early as January of 2018, research was conducted that showed possible efficacy
of the drug remdesivir (which is at the forefront of COVID-19 treatment) in
treating other coronaviruses.(4)
What is important to derive from all that is the following is this: COVID-19 is not some mysterious bogeyman that just popped up and started spreading worldwide. COVID-19 is a virus with precedence because of its close relation to several other well-known and well-understood coronaviruses (like SARS and MERS), and its genetic similarity is why potential treatments for them have proven efficient for COVID-19. With that understood, we can begin unpacking other details about the nature of this virus, namely two other important details: its mortality and its severity. To put it simply, the mortality rate of COVID-19, while higher than other known viruses, is still outstandingly low (2-3%) and has an outstandingly high recovery rate (>95%). This is a fact that even Doctor Anthony Fauci, during a congressional hearing in March of 2020, stated, saying:
“…it [COVID-19] is certainly not as lethal…but it certainly spreads better…,” and, “…the stated mortality of this...is about 3%”(6)
He does state that COVID-19 is much more
serious, as it is more deadly than influenza or SARS, but what we must still
keep in mind is that it is nowhere like anything else we have faced, or the
deadliest: Ebola, which barely scraped our knee like COVID-19 has, has a CFR as
high as 90%,(7) the H5N1 influenza strain has a mortality rate of
around 60%,(8) and MERS – COVID-19’s own cousin – has a CFR of 35%.(9) Now, as a short footnote, regarding the disease’s severity, we have evidence –
from the WHO – showing that – from a population of nearly 45,000 - 80% of cases
remained mild, and only 5% were ever critical;(10) coupled with
recovery rates (which were 87% in China,(11) and over 90% in
America), this is all damning evidence that states, very calmly, “This virus
isn’t an extinction level event.”
The second area we must address regarding COVID-19 is much more important and harrowing, that which seeks to understand what the response to COVID-19 has been and how efficient it has been. COVID-19, as a pandemic, has been responded to in dozens of countries in dozens of ways, so obviously I am not going to look at the global response. I am only looking at the American response, how our leaders have dealt with it, who is culpable for any complications—if culpability exists, and if we have responded well. To answer “Did our leaders do well?” we must understand this: President Trump is not the leader of our domestic response to COVID-19, and never has been, which is what he understood from the beginning.
While a nationwide
problem, necessitating federal response, Trump never had the federal
government hold the hands of any agency or any state and his administration’s
response has been characterized by one word: delegation. Trump established the
White House Coronavirus Task Force on January 29, 2020 which has the function
of “[coordinating] and [overseeing] the Administration’s efforts to monitor,
prevent, contain, and mitigate the spread of the virus.” The Task Force exists
to give federal oversight and drive to those doing the dirty work, such as
medical corporations that have been working around the clock to develop
effective treatments and healthcare networks who operate the hospitals the sick
are sent to.
Per the doctrines of federalism and government
responsibility the government is a helping hand in many domestic matters, and a
clear division exists between state jurisdiction and federal jurisdiction.
Sure, health is a matter every person is beholden to across state borders, but
it is – per principle – a state’s role to ensure that, the federal government
just ensures the state does its job and does it right (hence the coordinative
and supervisory role of the Task Force, rather than managerial and executive).
This brings us to the next level of understanding the response, in continuation
of understanding how our leaders have responded and if blame can be laid on
everyone, by looking at a state-by-state level. For this, I will use two
states: Texas and New York, which are both large states – in every way, too,
geographically, economically, demographically, and more – and have two
different governors, governments, and responses. Let us begin with Texas.
Texas, its response guided by Governor Abbot and the
Strike Force to Open Texas, has been marked by a textbook Republican response: keep business open, enforce social
distancing, regulate open and public spaces. Texas had a period of lockdown
towards the beginning in March, but slowly began to reopen afterwards. Texas
had several weeks of low cases and low deaths, and while it had its spikes
(concentrated in June) everything has remained low proportionally(12)
(indicated by how Texas, while having the second-highest rate of cases, is not
even in the top ten or twenty for deaths per 100,000(13)). The Texas
economy has also remained robust, with unemployment rates having recovered
immensely, going from 13% in April to just 6% in August,(14) and
that since April Texas’ economy has been showing generally positive economic
indicators, such as the aforementioned unemployment rates alongside robust
growth of the Texas Leading Index after the initial shock of the pandemic.(15)(16)(17) Generally, a very positive diagnosis for the state, which has remained strong
economically and relatively healthy statistically.
Now, New York, its response has been overseen by Governor
Cuomo, the NY Department of Health, and the Clinical Advisory Task Force (which
was basically created as a means of fearmongering over the federal government’s
vaccine efforts(18)). The state’s response has been marked by a
textbook leftist/Democratic response: shutter all businesses, strongly enforce
masks and social distancing, regulate public spaces, and – most importantly –
be hypocritical every step of the way for partisan reasons (from condoning
densely-packed riots to covering up nursing home infections). The vast majority
of COVID-19 cases and deaths were concentrated between March and May,
corresponding to other similar massive spikes in Blue states – that were not
seen in Red states(19) – that composed the majority of the United
States’ infection surges. Afterwards, starting in around May, New York’s cases
and deaths began to drop rapidly, although this corresponded with: the ending
of the notorious nursing home scandal,(20) a Columbia University
study that concluded that 17,000 lives could have prevented if New York State
had acted quicker,(21) and the beginning of near-punitive lockdown
measures. The economic condition of New York has also been very severe: in just
a one month period, the state’s unemployment rate of 4% nearly quadrupled to
15.3%, and maintained a consistent rate of ~15% until September, when unemployment
levels steadily decreased to 9% (but that is still very high, double the
pre-pandemic levels).(22) Additionally, the General Business
Conditions Diffusion Index – a very good economic indicator, like the Texas
Leading Index – showed a massive collapse in economic integrity beginning in
February (following a pre-existing declining trend, likely exacerbated by the
pandemic) that fell to a negative value in the seventies that lingered
for a month, and only returned to pre-pandemic levels in July.(23) Truly, New York has fared much worse in its response than Texas had,
especially when you take in consideration other statistics, such as Texas’ 2%
mortality rate and New York’s 6% mortality rate,(24) the
pre-existing condition of New York as one of the most economically weak and
pessimistic states,(25) and the differing intensity and quantity of
scandals regarding the respective state’s governors’ responses.
[AS OF MAY 2021 MY RESEARCH ON COVID-19'S ORIGINS CAN BE OFFICIALLY CALLED OUTDATED AND WRONG. PLEASE REFER TO MY ARTICLE "PLANNED OR UNPLANNED, THAT IS THE QUESTION" TO SEE THE TRUTH BEHIND COVID-19'S ORIGINS.]
With all that said and done, it is time to summarize. Regarding the virus’ nature: it is very much real and a threat, but it is nothing cataclysmic or necessitating social and economic paralysis, as its CFR is just 3% and only leads to severe cases 20% of the time, and the common trend among severe cases being people who are immunocompromised or elderly (people who could be protected very easily without mass regulation of the general public). Regarding the pandemic response: what data from Texas and New York show is that the response given by Texas (which has been textbook Republican) has proven better in humanitarian and economic respects, while New York’s response (which has been textbook Democratic) has been marked by greater controversy, mismanagement, and economic weakness; these trends seem to be partisan, with Red states faring better than Blue states. Regarding the virus’ origin: it had its geographic epicenter in Huanan, Wuhan, China, with initial cases occurring as early as November 2019. The virus is, biologically, derived – most likely – from a strain of bat coronavirus which was exposed to Patients Zero through the use of dead, infected bats in Chinese traditional medicine.
There is much more to go on about this virus, trust me, but this is as concise as I can make all the facts be in one article. These are simply the facts, outside of the lenses of disinformation or partisanship, and this should give you the best outlook on this virus that has gripped us all in its hold. Lastly, stay safe, stay healthy, Godspeed.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. “COVID-19 Overview and
Infection Prevention and Control Priorities in Non-US Healthcare Settings.” Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, 11 Feb. 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/non-us-settings/overview/index.html.
2. “SARS-CoV Disease.” Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, 6 Dec. 2017,
https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html.
3. “COVID-19 Coronavirus
Genetically Similar to SARS.” Purdue University, 24 Jan. 2020,
https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2020/Q1/covid-19-coronavirus-genetically-similar-to-sars.html.
4. “Coronavirus
Susceptibility to the Antiviral Remdesivir (GS-5734) Is Mediated by the Viral
Polymerase and the Proofreading Exoribonuclease.” MBio, no. 2, American
Society for Microbiology, Mar. 2018, doi:10.1128/mbio.00221-18.
6. “Dr. Anthony Fauci
Addresses COVID-19 Mortality Rate.” C-SPAN, 11 Mar. 2020,
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4860450/user-clip-dr-anthony-fauci-addresses-covid-19-mortality-rate.
7. “Ebola Virus Disease.”
World Health Organization, 10 Feb. 2020, https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease.
8. “H5N1 Influenza.” Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, 18 Mar. 2015,
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-people.htm.
9. “Infection with Middle
East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus.” Canadian Journal of Respiratory
Therapy, Canadian Science Publishing, 2015, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4631129/
10. “COVID-19 Situation
Report - 41.” World Health Organization, 1 Mar. 2020, https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2.
11. https://ibb.co/1TLTjHS
12. “Texas.” The COVID
Tracking Project, https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas#summary-charts.
Accessed 28 Oct. 2020.
13. “U.S. COVID-19 Death
Rate by State.” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/.
Accessed 28 Oct. 2020.
14. “Texas Economy at a
Glance.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 28 Oct. 2020,
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.tx.htm.
15. “Texas Economic
Indicators – April 2020.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas,
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/tei/2020/tei2003.aspx. Accessed
28 Oct. 2020.
16. “Texas Economic
Indicators – June 2020.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/tei/2020/tei2006.aspx.
Accessed 28 Oct. 2020.
17. “Texas Economic
Indicators – October 2020.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/tei/2020/tei2010.aspx.
Accessed 28 Oct. 2020.
18. https://ibb.co/HDZC8q8
19. I derived this
observation from covidtracking.com, which showed very low cases and deaths
between March and May for several generally Red states (e.g. Texas, Alabama,
Kentucky, etc.), and the opposite for several generally Blue states (e.g.
California, New York, Minnesota, etc.).
20. “Facts First: Gov. Cuomo
Falsely Claims New York Nursing Homes ‘never Needed’ to Take in COVID-Positive
Patients.” CNN, 1 Oct. 2020,
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/andrew-cuomo-nursing-homes-fact-check/index.html.
21. “Differential Effects
of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States.” MedRxiv,
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 20 May 2020. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v2
22. “New York Economy at
a Glance.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 28 Oct. 2020, https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.ny.htm.
23. “Empire State
Manufacturing Survey.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 9 Oct. 2020, https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.htm.
24. https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas
compared to https://covidusa.net/?state=New+York
25. “New York’s Economic Outlook Ranked Worst in the Nation.” New York Post, 13 Aug. 2020, https://nypost.com/2020/08/13/new-yorks-economic-outlook-ranked-worst-in-the-nation/.
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